How long does it take for a goalie prospect to be an NHLer?

 The Sabres have a lot of work to do this off season when it comes to addressing their needs in goal for the Sabres and Amerks next season. While listening to The Instigator Podcast yesterday, they talked about whether trading for a goalie like John Gibson would cause issues in signing Erik Portillo and Devon Levi after next season. Gibson is signed through the 2026-27, so that could potentially impact their decisions.

But that got me thinking about how long does it usually take goalie prospects to develop into NHL netminders?

So, I looked at the top 15 goalies in NHL games played this season and then built a table to figure out how long it took from their draft year to when they first played 20 NHL games and then 50 NHL games. I also looked at how long it took Linus Ullmark, Ryan Miller, and Martin Biron took to see if the numbers lined up.

This table shows the range of development time from how long it took Marc-Andre Fleury to go from the 1st overall pick in the 2003 draft to the #1 goalie for the Penguins to the long and winding road it took Philipp Grubauer to get his first NHL season with 50 games played.

It was interesting to see that the numbers for the top 15 goalies were similar to the three Sabres goalies I looked at.

So, what does this mean for Portillo and Levi?

With Erik Portillo being drafted in 2019, this data would say that if he follows an average development timeline that he would play 20+ games in the 2023-24 season and 50+ games in the 2025-26 season.

And with Devon Levi being drafted in 2020, this data would say that if he follows an average development timeline that he would play 20+ games in the 2024-25 season and 50+ games in the 2026-27 season.

So, while John Gibson's contract with five years remaining on it would more than likely be an issue with how quickly we can expect Portillo and Levi to develop, if the Sabres were to acquire an NHL #1 that is under contract for two or three years would not appear to be an issue.

But like most things like this, actual results will vary.