Some random Sabres thoughts after the draft and before Free Agency starts

 

A bunch of random thoughts after the NHL Draft and with Free Agency starting in a few days:

- With three first round picks, you expect that the knee jerk draft grades are going to be good for the Sabres. And they were. 

- I think I was the most excited about Jiri Kulich falling to the Sabres at 28 when looking at the three first round picks.

- I liked the three first round picks overall. The Sabres added a lot of skill and offensive upside. 

- The few nit picks I have with this draft class are the concerns about Savoie's concussion/injury history, I wasn't thrilled with them taking Leinonen where they did, and I think they could have used 1 or 2 more defensemen in this class.

- I really love how open and honest Jerry Forton is during his post-draft media availability. Him getting choked up when asked about Kevyn Adams as the leader of the front office was heartwarming, as well. 

- It really is too bad that Matt Murray wouldn't waive his No Trade Clause to come to Buffalo. Moving up from 16 to 7 in the first round would have been fun. And he would at least give the Sabres an NHL goalie for the next two years, even if he is vastly overpaid.

- Some people were surprised that the Sabres kept all 11 of their picks. But, given the influence of the analytics department, that didn't shock me. 

- I also don't get why people think that the Leinonen pick meant anything to UPL, Portillo, or Levi. Goalies usually take around 4 to 5 seasons post-draft to make it to the NHL. This is a long development play pick and shouldn't affect things in Rochester or Buffalo for a number of seasons. And given that this is the first goalie selected since Adams became GM, you could argue that a goalie pick was overdue.

- It is way too soon to grade the picks. Given how things have gone since Adams coming on board, I am tempering my reaction to some of the picks that I have not excited about. But, I really only had a thumbs down reaction to taking Leinonen in the 2nd round with a lot of good defensemen still on the board. But, I understand the Sabres thought process as Forton expressed in the media availability. They had Leinonen as the best goalie in the class by a wide margin and they had a first round grade on him. It sounded like they could have taken him at 28 if Kulich hadn't fallen to that pick. Personally, I am worried that they drafted a guy that is big in a time when skating, athleticism, and reading the game are becoming more and more important. But, goalies are extremely hard to scout. So, I just have to hope that he does work out in the long run. 

- Biro and Bryson getting re-signed to two year deals was a nice bit of work. And the Sabres gave their four remaining RFAs their qualifying offers, as expected.

- It will be really interesting to see what the Sabres do to fill out the two or three holes they have in their goalie depth chart. Re-signing UPL is a foregone conclusion. Malcolm Subban has been hanging out with Sabres teammates ever since the trade and through this past weekend. It seems inevitable that they re-sign him as a depth guy that will spend most of the season in Rochester. And nobody will be surprised if Houser re-signs to be the ECHL/AHL guy. The huge question is who can they add to the top of the goalie depth chart. It seems like a lot of people are guessing that Eric Comrie might be the guy they go after in FA and guys like James Reimer or Adin Hill might be on their radar if they go the trade route. I just hope that they don't give up a 2nd round pick for a guy who is a UFA next summer.

- Another thing to watch is what will they do on defense, especially RHD, this off season. PK Subban is a name that has been thrown around a lot. Especially given how well his brother has fit into the Sabres locker room since being acquired last season. Jan Rutta would bring serious playoff experience if they go in another direction.

- Kevyn Adams talked about being patient after day 2 of the draft. I am going to expect that the Sabres won't be as aggressive as a sizable segment of the fanbase and local media will want. But given where this team is in regards to their building process, that is fine with me. Patience is a virtue.

- I will likely get tired of the "Process" talk before too long. It's easy to talk about trusting a process that has resulted in way more results than the Sabres have had over the past decade. I am more hopeful about this front office than the two prior administrations. But, if this team isn't a playoff contender in 2023-24, patience will start to wear thin.

Some random Sabres thoughts ahead of the NHL Draft

 

The 2022 NHL Draft is one of the most wide open drafts in recent memory for a variety of reasons. The biggest factor is the ongoing impact on the development of players due to the COVID pandemic. The OHL taking the entire 2020-21 season off negatively impacted the development of all the OHL prospects, most notably Shane Wright. The other major issue affecting this draft is the uncertainty of what is going on in Russia and how that could affect the long term availability of Russian prospects that are not already playing in North America. The news of Flyers prospect goalie Ivan Fedotov being arrested for evading mandatory military service after signing with the Flyers and wanting to move to North America for the 2022-23 season will likely cause more than a few NHL teams to avoid drafting Russian players in the 2022 Draft.

How I Look At Players

Most people that look at prospects and drafting have some guidelines they like to use when valuing players and deciding who to take. For me, I like players that are hard to play against, have solid intangibles, and contribute to a relatively balanced prospect pipeline.

Hard to play against

When a lot of people think about players that are hard to play against, they simply think of players with a physical edge to their game, like Tom Wilson. For me, there are multiple ways that a player can be hard to play against. The easiest example is a player like Connor McDavid. McDavid is not the most physical player in NHL history. But, he is the hardest player to play against today because of his speed across the board from the way he processes the game, his skating ability, and his hands that allow him to make high level plays at high rates of speed.

You can also think about individual skills that contribute to a player being hard to play against like Victor Olofsson's shot. 

Solid intangibles

The "vibes" surrounding the Sabres and Kevyn Adams focusing on things like grit, mental toughness, and work ethic lead me to believe that the Sabres value intangibles as much, or maybe more, as I do. The big reason that intangibles are important to me is the fact that being an impactful NHL player is as much, or more, about things like work ethic than pure skill. Yes, there needs to be a requisite level of skill for a player to be an NHLer. But, the desire to be their best and to be willing to sacrifice to be the best player they can be is a defining attribute of the elite in the game.

If a player has talent and not the right intangibles, I would rather that another team rolls the dice on that player.

Balanced pipeline 

Some people are of the opinion that you always take the Best Player Available and worry about balancing out a roster down the line. I understand why some people have that attitude, but I do believe that you need to balance things out to some extent and not leave yourself completely bereft of prospects in a single area.

My approach to the 2022 Draft if I were the Sabres GM

- I would make four picks in the top 41. The Sabres currently hold picks 9, 16, 28, and 41 in the first two rounds of the 2022 Draft. I would make 4 picks in the top 41 given the depth of talent in this draft. Basically, this is saying that I would not use the 41st overall pick to trade up in the first round just to get a guy that is falling. With 11 overall picks in the draft, I would be open to moving a later pick or two in order to move up to get a guy like the Sabres did to get Peterka in 2020.

- The Sabres need to take a goalie somewhere in the 2022 Draft. Talking about balancing the pipeline, the Sabres are really thin when it comes to goalie prospects. They will get even thinner if Erik Portillo does walk as a UFA next summer. So, Kevyn Adams should take his first goalie ever as a Sabres GM.

- I would roll the dice on one "risky" pick in the first round. I would prefer that they wait until the 28th pick to do so, but I would put guys like Lane Hutson, Jagger Firkus, or Brad Lambert in the "roll of the dice" bucket at 28.

- Trust your board and be open to moving up or down. There is a reason that the Sabres have scouts and they put in work all year long. 

Guys I Like At...

9th Overall

- If one of the top five prospects fall to 9th overall, don't even think about it. If Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Nemec, or Jiricek are there at 9, it should be a no brainer.

- Best Center Available - Kasper, Savoie, or Nazar are the three most likely center prospects that might be there at 9. Cutter Gauthier is a guy that has played a lot of wing and may play center in college that could be in the mix at 9, as well.

- I would not be mad at a pick like Kemell or Lekkerimaki at 9. But, I feel like the Sabres have plenty of high end wing prospects and could use help up the middle or at RHD way more.

- I also would not be mad if the Sabres were to take the best LHD possible as they may be able to take the best LHD prospect in this draft at 9.

16th Overall

- Obviously if one of the guys that I liked at 9 were still there at 16, you take them. This draft is so wide open that I think there is a good chance that the Sabres really like two guys at 9 and the one that they don't take is still there at 16.

- Best NTDP forward possible - I like a lot of the guys in this year's US National Team Development Program class of prospects. I would be OK with any of the likely first round guys from the NTDP at 16.

- Djurgarden is another program with multiple guys slated to go in the first round. I would not be upset if the Sabres were to take one of the Djurgarden forwards at 16.

- You could also see the Sabres go with either a LHD or a RHD in this spot. If they take a guy in the mid-first round, I would hope that he is a guy who has a high hockey IQ.

28th Overall

- This is where the gambling season should take place. Whether that is a guy like Lane Hutson or Jagger Firkus who have the  major knock is that they are undersized, one of the top Russians in the draft, or maybe the most polarizing player in the draft in Brad Lambert.

- If they went forward-forward at 9 & 16, I would go Best D Possible in this spot.

Random thoughts

- I will be unhappy if they take Brad Lambert and Connor Geekie with their top two picks. While Lambert has an enticing speed+skill package, there are questions about both his hockey IQ and his intangibles. Those are two things that I really value and it would make it hard for me to get excited if the Sabres took Lambert before the 28th pick. And the issue I have in Connor Geekie is that he seems like a guy with a power forward body who plays a bit of a small guy perimeter game and is not as hard to play against as he could, or should, be.

- It will be really intriguing to see if the Sabres are a team that is willing to take Russians in this draft. The Sabres took five Russians in the 2021 Draft after not taking a Russian-based player of note in a really long time. There is talk that 10+ teams are unwilling to draft Russians in this class. With 11 picks, the Sabres might be able to get some real value if they are one of the teams that take Russian players.

- Another area where the Sabres could get some value is in the sub-6'2" goalie department. There are some teams that will not scout goalie prospects that are not at least 6'2" tall. But, with the Sabres trading for sub-6'2" Devon Levi last year, that might not be a barrier to the Sabres taking a goalie. Going off of Central Scouting's list, you have Hugo Havelid, Dylan Silverstein, and plenty of others that fail to crack that 6'2" mark. Havelid had a strong U18 championship backstopping Team Sweden. He could be a nice mid-round goalie pick for the Sabres.

- How will analytics impact the Sabres approach to the draft? Whether it is Will Scouch's rankings or these rankings from Byron Bader at HockeyProsecting.com, there are plenty of people looking analytically in new and unique ways. With the Sabres expanded analytics department, I wonder how that impacts their approach to the draft.

Bottom Line:

The draft should be fun. Even if the Sabres don't take all the guys I want where they pick, I do hope that they turn into quality NHLers and help contribute to the Sabres getting back into the playoffs soon.