What is freedom of speech?

It has been interesting to see the reaction to the news that Elon Musk has purchased Twitter and plans to take it private. It seems like many believe that Elon's belief that Twitter is the world's public square and that he believes in the freedom of speech to mean that Twitter will allow any and every kind of speech moving forward. I am resisting any sort of kneejerk reaction one way or the other and instead am focused on a few things that Elon has said are in his plans for the platform.

This one sentence from Elon's official release on the purchase intrigues me as a Software Systems Engineer:

“I also want to make Twitter better than ever by enhancing the product with new features, making the algorithms open source to increase trust, defeating the spam bots, and authenticating all humans.”

The first question becomes what new features could bubble up to the top of the priority list for the "Open under new management" Twitter? I know plenty of people are hoping for an edit feature. Elon talked about the trickiness of an edit feature and perhaps needing to limit it to tweets that have yet to be retweeted or responded to. I also wonder if you could see users being able to turn on a delayed send feature so that people have a bigger window to edit. I am sure plenty of users who race to get their takes out there wouldn't turn on something like that. But, for users that would really use the edit button a lot, a one minute delay on publishing tweets might not be a bad idea. Kind of like the 5 second delay to allow for the use of a dump button for live radio and TV.

The publishing of the Twitter algorithms to GitHub for public review is the one feature I see having the most potential for good and for bad. Opening up the algorithm for feedback would likely be a net good thing. But, there will be people that will take advantage of the access to learn how to game Twitter. But, I think this would have the potential to be the biggest gamechanger when it comes to social media platforms in general as I could see Twitter being used as an example to get companies like Meta and Snap to open up their algorithms for review. I could also see those other companies doubling down on keeping their code private.

I will lump defeating spam bots and authenticating all humans into one bucket. These are the things that I believe have the most potential for good on Twitter. I also believe that this has the most potential to disappoint the people that are celebrating Elon buying Twitter. When the bot farms who are designed to cause in-fighting amongst people go quiet, people may be surprised to find out what sources they trusted have been silenced. I will also laugh at the people that will be upset by the silencing of the bot farms. People will really be telling on themselves when that happens.

Personally, I will stay on Twitter because I have crafted the way I use it in such a way that it is a net positive for me and I really doubt that Elon buying it will change my experience in any meaningful way.

Unless all the people that are freaking out about Twitter moving to a subscription service are correct...

How long does it take for a goalie prospect to be an NHLer?

 The Sabres have a lot of work to do this off season when it comes to addressing their needs in goal for the Sabres and Amerks next season. While listening to The Instigator Podcast yesterday, they talked about whether trading for a goalie like John Gibson would cause issues in signing Erik Portillo and Devon Levi after next season. Gibson is signed through the 2026-27, so that could potentially impact their decisions.

But that got me thinking about how long does it usually take goalie prospects to develop into NHL netminders?

So, I looked at the top 15 goalies in NHL games played this season and then built a table to figure out how long it took from their draft year to when they first played 20 NHL games and then 50 NHL games. I also looked at how long it took Linus Ullmark, Ryan Miller, and Martin Biron took to see if the numbers lined up.

This table shows the range of development time from how long it took Marc-Andre Fleury to go from the 1st overall pick in the 2003 draft to the #1 goalie for the Penguins to the long and winding road it took Philipp Grubauer to get his first NHL season with 50 games played.

It was interesting to see that the numbers for the top 15 goalies were similar to the three Sabres goalies I looked at.

So, what does this mean for Portillo and Levi?

With Erik Portillo being drafted in 2019, this data would say that if he follows an average development timeline that he would play 20+ games in the 2023-24 season and 50+ games in the 2025-26 season.

And with Devon Levi being drafted in 2020, this data would say that if he follows an average development timeline that he would play 20+ games in the 2024-25 season and 50+ games in the 2026-27 season.

So, while John Gibson's contract with five years remaining on it would more than likely be an issue with how quickly we can expect Portillo and Levi to develop, if the Sabres were to acquire an NHL #1 that is under contract for two or three years would not appear to be an issue.

But like most things like this, actual results will vary.

How can the Sabres stay healthier and better support their goalies moving forward?

 Not only am I a Buffalo Sabres fan, but two areas of great interest to me are goaltending and strength and conditioning. I am not only a beer league goalie, but I have worked with youth hockey goalies as my kids grew up in youth hockey, and two of my kids have played goalie at different times in their youth hockey careers. So, I have viewed the position from about as many different angles as possible.

With the Sabres having zero goalies under contract for the 2022-23 season, one goalie under team control for next season in pending Restricted Free Agent Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and two goalies on their reserve list in Devon Levi and Eric Portillo, they have a lot of work to do to fill out their NHL, AHL, and ECHL goalie depth, along with a need to strengthen their goalie prospect pipeline.

But rather than contemplate what goalies the Sabres should sign, trade for, or draft this off season, I am going to look at another thing that the Sabres could do to improve the goalie position. The InGoal Radio podcast interview with Sabres goalie development coach Seamus Kotyk from earlier this season allowed fans to take a look behind the curtain of what the Sabres do to support their goalie prospects. My big suggestion would be for the Sabres to follow a trend around the league and build a Goalie Department of Excellence. The Florida Panthers hired Roberto Luongo to head up their goalie department. I think the best candidate for the Sabres to hire would follow a similar path as the Luongo hiring in Florida.

Ryan Miller is the perfect fit for the role with the Sabres. In Ryan Miller's most recent interview on the InGoal Radio podcast, he talked about his transition from his playing career to what he wants to do next. Miller was originally named as the goalie coach for team USA at the Olympics when NHLers were going to participate in the tournament. This was not a traditional goalie coaching job as it was more about trying to help pick the right three goalies for Team USA and providing as much support as was needed in a short tournament with goalies already playing at the highest level. But, I think this is the type of higher level thinking that a head of a goalie department for an NHL team needs. And if you have listened to either of Ryan Miller's InGoal interviews, you can see how deeply Miller thinks about the position and how he approached the game.

We also know that Ryan Miller still has a big place in his heart for the Sabres organization. Not only did he pull out some old Reebok Sabres gear to record his video tribute for RJ Night, but he also worked with the Sabres social media team to record an amazing "Welcome to Buffalo" video for when Owen Power was drafted first overall in the 2021 Draft. The fact that Miller, a member of the first family of Michigan State hockey, did that for a guy being drafted from the Michigan Wolverines just added to how special that truly was.

So, this wouldn't just be about getting a former player to come back into the organization for nostalgia. I truly believe that Ryan Miller would be a great hire for a job that would have a huge positive influence on the Sabres organization.

Another piece to the goalie development puzzle that I think would be great would be if they added a strength and conditioning coach that is a goalie development specialist. Adam Francilia and Maria Mountain are two of the top coaches in the game when it comes to goalie development and would make great additions to the Sabres organization. Mountain has worked with the Sabres as a guest coach at development camp in the past.

The Sabres need to invest in the goalie position in more ways than just adding players to their organization. And I think this is an approach that could yield a ton of dividends moving forward.

Keeping guys healthy

One of the big issues this season has been the volume and length of injuries to players both in Buffalo and Rochester. Sabres GM Kevyn Adams has talked about how he will look at what they can do to improve in that area, including talking to people with the Buffalo Bills about what they do. Over the past few years, the Bills have been one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. So, the stark contrast in injuries between the two teams is interesting given all the shared resources they have.

If it were up to me, the first person I would consult would be Mike Boyle. Boyle is one of the most well respected experts in ice hockey strength and conditioning. He has a long career both in the private sector and working for teams. He has been the head strength and conditioning coach for Boston University, the Boston Bruins, and various USA Hockey national teams, including the women's national team at the most recent Olympics.

I would not expect Mike to leave the Boston area. But, I would pick his brain for who would be the best fit for the job. One name that I would expect him to put out there would be Brijesh Patel who is the long time director of athletic performance at Quinnipiac University. Patel has been the strength coach for the Bobcats men's hockey team as they have grown into a top tier program in ECAC Hockey and the NCAA. Patel is a guy that gets overlooked and underestimated because he didn't play the game and doesn't look the part. But, I think that is the type of person the Sabres should be looking to add. Patel would also fit in well with an organization that is all about player development given his long tenure working with college athletes.

The Sabres need to be willing to improve how they do things. I believe that hiring Boyle, Patel, or another coach in the Mike Boyle strength and conditioning coaching tree would be a great move forward for the Sabres.

Keep the good vibes going - 5 big questions for the Sabres leading into the 2022-23 season

In the past, I have talked about the need to make the Sabres fun again. Well, with a win over Jack Eichel and the Vegas Golden Knights, RJ Night, and the best March record in I don't know how long, the Sabres are fun again. Some people have talked about the path this team was on and that they could be like this year's Detroit Red Wings next season with the expected arrival of Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and perhaps JJ Peterka to go with a largely young and hungry roster with potential. But, if you look at the standings today, the Sabres are tied with the Red Wings with 61 points this season. Although, Detroit does have a game in hand. Lots of Sabres fans are looking to what does GM Kevyn Adams do this summer with both the NHL roster, but also the prospect pipeline. 

Here are my random questions and thoughts about what could be in the offing for the Sabres and the good vibes train.

Will Adams be aggressive this offseason?

The biggest question that will be answered is how aggressive will Kevyn Adams be in trying to improve the roster? Or, will Adams take a more patient approach and lean heavily on retaining a few UFAs and looking for growth from players and prospects that are already on the roster and in the system?

With Kevyn Adams showing interest in re-signing both Vinny Hinostroza and Craig Anderson, I wonder if Adams will be more patient than Tim Murray was late in the 2014-15 season and in the summer of 2015. Sabres fans will remember the ill-fated decisions to trade for Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian from Winnipeg, Ryan O'Reilly from Colorado, and Robin Lehner from Ottawa in an attempt to speed up the Sabres rebuild with Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel in the fold. 

With Rasmus Dahlin looking like a true #1 defenseman, Tage Thompson having a 30 goal season, Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka tearing up the AHL, Owen Power likely turning pro after this weekend's Frozen Four, so many other young players taking steps forward, having up to three first round picks in the 2022 Draft, and over $40 million in projected cap space for next season, the Sabres would be in a good spot to try and make additions to the roster that could help improve the on ice results next season. However, Adams has talked about being patient and building from within. That is why the talk about being open to bringing Hinostroza and Anderson back raises questions about how aggressive will Adams be.

Will the Sabres use more of their cap space in 2022-23?

A related question is will the Sabres use more of their available cap space in 2022-23 than they did this season. After the Jack Eichel trade, the Sabres had to take the contract of Johnny Boychuk off of the Islanders' books to remain above the cap floor. And with over $40 million in available cap space for next season, the Sabres will need to add salary to make the cap floor next season. But, they also have the ability to add some significant salary, if they so choose.

The Sabres did not make too many moves to weaponize their cap space over the course of the 2021-22 season. They received a 5th round pick in the Will Butcher trade with New Jersey and that was about it. They were so in need of taking on the Boychuk contract that they were not able to get a pick from the Islanders for the cap and salary relief.

I don't expect the Sabres to add any players to the NHL roster that have a huge contract. But, they do have the cap space if they want to use it.

What will the Sabres do in goal in 2022-23?

The Sabres have no goalies under contract for the 2022-23 season. The Sabres have only one goalie under team control for 2022-23 in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. And the Sabres have only two goalies on their reserve list in Devon Levi (Northeastern University) and Erik Portillo (University of Michigan). The Sabres have five goalies with NHL contracts that are UFAs this summer in Craig Anderson, Dustin Tokarski, Aaron Dell, Michael Houser, and Malcolm Subban. 

The Sabres will need to have four or five goalies signed to NHL contracts this summer. 

The first decision to be made will be with regards to Levi and Portillo and whether the Sabres sign one, or both, of them this summer. Lots of Sabres fans have Cal Petersen induced paranoia about potentially losing a solid college goalie prospect by not signing them before they become a UFA. Signing both of them in the next two weeks would allow fans to relax. The challenge could be getting them enough starts in a solid pro league. Although, the Sabres could choose to either loan Portillo to a pro team in his home country of Sweden or start one of Levi or Portillo in the ECHL. While the ECHL does not have a great reputation for prospect development, it has become a more regular part of goalie prospect development as teams have had more and more young goalies coming up through their systems.

The easiest decision will be re-signing Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen who is a Restricted Free Agent this summer. 2022-23 will be a big season in Luukkonen's pro career as he will likely get every chance to have a role with the Sabres next season. 

The toughest decision will be what veteran goalies for the Sabres to add. While Adams has talked about bring Craig Anderson back, I am not sure I would be excited about that move. Anderson turn 41 years old in May and has not played 50 games in an NHL season since the 2018-19 season. I would not trust an Anderson-Luukkonen pairing to stay healthy for an 82 game NHL season. Plus, there are huge questions about the quality of goaltending that the duo could supply as Luukkonen has had a rough AHL season and Anderson has barely broken the .900 Save% mark so far this season with the Sabres.

There will be a variety of options for the Sabres on the trade market and in free agency. Goaltending is a position that is hard to predict from season to season. That is why if the Sabres do go after a goaltender that makes a significant amount, I would hope that they Sabres keep the contract short. Lots of fans are hoping that the Winnipeg Jets decide to go with a full rebuild this summer and move Connor Hellebuyck for a futures package. If Kevyn Adams wants to be aggressive and Hellebuyck were available, that would appear to be a smart move. If Hellebuyck is not an option, I would prefer that the Sabres try and lure a good locker room guy like Jack Campbell on a two or three year deal at a slightly above market AAV. With Freddy Andersen looking good after leaving Toronto for Carolina, it wouldn't be a bad gamble to try and see if leaving the Leafs could help Campbell rebound. 

About the only options I would hope the Sabres stay away from would be trading for guys like Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Murray, or Jordan Binnington. Whether it is injury, contract, or attitude concerns, these are not the type of gambles that I would hope the Sabres make. But, I also hope that they do more than just re-sign the goalies that they had this year.

What will the Sabres do on the right side of the blueline in 2022-23?

The Sabres are set for a while on the left side of the blueline with former first overall picks Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power expected to anchor the top two pairings and both powerplay units in 2022-23 and Mattias Samuelsson developing into a solid third pairing guy that brings physical play and leadership. Jacob Bryson is a left shot D that has shown the ability to play on the right side. That positional flexibility will be valuable moving forward.

On the right side, the Sabres have far more questions heading into next season. Henri Jokiharju is the best right shot D that the Sabres have under contract for 2022-23. His play this season has been uneven as Dahlin's partner for most of the season. Casey Fitzgerald is the other right shot D that has seen significant time in Buffalo that is signed for next season.

Kevyn Adams has confirmed a rumor that he has been asking other GMs about acquiring a right shot D with the mind that they would pair with Owen Power next season. That has led Sabres fans and media to try and guess what players Adams has shown interest in. This could be a place where the Sabres ample salary cap space and extra draft picks could allow the Sabres to add a significant player to the roster.

What will the Sabres do with their forwards in 2022-23?

The forward ranks are the spot where the Sabres have a lot of players under contract for 2022-23 and the question is how many forwards will Adams move out to improve the roster for next season?

The Sabres have four forwards that will be UFAs after this season in Vinny Hinostroza, Cody Eakin, John Hayden, and Drake Caggiula. With Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka looking like strong candidates to make the Sabres roster next season, the Sabres could choose to just promote from within and maybe add a 4th line center to replace Eakin and that is it.

Or, the Sabres could try and tinker with their forwards. Anders Bjork is under contract for next season at $1.6 million and he has been invisible for the Sabres for most of his time as a Sabre. There is some speculation about his future and it focuses mainly on three options to get him off the Sabres roster via trade, buyout, or waiving him to Rochester.

The next person under team control for next season that there are questions about is winger Victor Olofsson. Olofsson is a restricted free agent this summer and will be eligible for UFA in the summer of 2023 if he were to sign a one year deal for the 2022-23 season. This is the same situation that Sam Reinhart was in a year ago when Adams decided to trade the forward to the Florida Panthers. Olofsson is a proven NHL goal scorer with a tremendous ability to shoot the puck, especially from the right dot on the powerplay. But, with players like Quinn and Peterka pushing for a roster spot in Buffalo, this could be the right time to try and move Olofsson. Especially if he can be used in a deal to upgrade the roster in goal or on the right side of defense.

The other person that is signed for next season that could potentially be utilized as a trade piece is Casey Mittelstadt. Hopes were sky high for Mittelstadt heading into the 2021-22 season after his string finish to last season after Don Granato took over as interim head coach. However, injuries derailed Mittelstadt's season and we are once again left with a lot of questions about the skilled young center. But, with Mittelstadt under contract for two more seasons at a reasonable $2.5 million AAV, he could be the type of skilled young player that a team with cap issues might be interested in acquiring for a more expensive, most established player. If Kevyn Adams wants to get more aggressive this off season, I would expect that Mittelstadt is traded for a veteran forward that can help the Sabres take a step forward in 2022-23.