Dreams vs Reality

 

With the 2023 NFL Draft kicking off this evening, I have been listening to a lot of Bills podcasts this morning. My favorite so far has been Bruce Nolan's episode from this morning. I enjoy the way that Bruce thinks about things like drafting and roster building in general. So, his thoughts about having limited draft resources and how to view WRs like Gabe Davis and Jalin Hyatt as deep threats and how you don't want deep threat WRs to get a lot of targets on offense. 

So, I am going to go with a few Bruce-isms or thoughts that have popped into my head after listening to Bruce talk about the Bills over the past year.

Disappointment = Expectations - Reality

This may be my favorite Bruce-ism of all time. And as we enter the draft, I think this is something to be mindful of. Especially since the Bills currently hold the 27th pick in the first round, along with five other picks.

To expect any single player to be available when the Bills are on the clock is setting yourself up for disappointment. Personally, I would love it if the Bills were able to draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 27. But, to expect that given that he is WR1 in this draft according to most people would be setting myself up for major disappointment.

I also am a big proponent for trading back and adding picks as I think the Bills could use more than 6 rookies on cheap contracts for both 2023 and beyond. But, I also know that Brandon Beane has never traded back in the 1st round and has traded up multiple times. So, if I am dead set on the Bills trading back and adding picks, I am also setting myself up for disappointment.

Since I do not enjoy being disappointed, I will try and be open to a variety of outcomes and not really expect any one or two things to happen. Part of that will also be not falling into the trap that I know everything about all the prospects and what the Bills should do. This mindset is driven by a thought that came from listening to Bruce this morning.

Limits

Bruce started his podcast with a wonderful analogy involving his dog Drax and how the Bills cannot come away with the best WR, a stud RT, a plug and play DT, a game changing RB, the next C after Mitch Morse is done, a starting MLB, and an answer to any other hole on the roster that a fan can think of. That is because the Bills have limited draft capital and that limits the things they can do over the next three days.

That made me think about how we as fans have limited information. We do not know what McDermott and the coaching staff have in mind with respect to how different prospects fit what they want to do next season. We also have no idea how much they want to evolve what they do on offense and defense.

The scheme evolution factors in on a few different conversations on both sides of the ball. On offense, the idea that the Bills could use 12 personnel more could lead them to look at a TE on day one or day two of the draft. Brandon Beane has talked about how they had Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey in Carolina and that gave Cam Newton easy options on offense. With this draft class having a lot of really good TE prospects, that could be something that the Bills look to address. But, we have limited information in that we don't know if the two TEs talk was a usual pre-draft smokescreen or if there is something there. We also don't have information on the type of TE that the Bills would like to add if they are looking to make that offensive change. Would a guy like Darnell Washington be their guy as the jumbo TE who can actually get out and catch the ball be what they look for to improve over the OTs they used in that role last year? Or do they wait and go with a beefed up WR type TE like Zack Kuntz later in the draft? 

On defense, we have no idea what the shift from Leslie Frazier to Sean McDermott will mean with regards to the types of players they want to add. With MLB being their most glaring hole among their starters on both sides of the ball, we don't know what kind of LB they want to add. Is it Jack Campbell who was a prototypical MLB at Iowa who called plays and made a boatload of tackles. Then you have Drew Sanders who was more of an edge rusher at Alabama before being a bit of an inside/outside LB at Arkansas. Sanders did not have the tackle volume that Campbell had in college, but he was much more effective at rushing the passer and many feel that his tape shows a more athletic LB than Campbell shows on tape. 

And then we have no idea how the Bills view their needs on the DL. With Von Miller coming off of an ACL tear suffering on Thanksgiving and recent draft picks not developing the way many had hoped, the Bills might look to add a DE edge rusher early. And then you get into what type of DE they would target. Is it the bigger edge setter like they have drafted recently? Or, would it be more of a bendy speed rusher like Von Miller is? When it comes to DT, do they want a 3Tech to replace Ed Oliver after this season to get cheaper? Do they want a 1Tech to replace DaQuan Jones since he is on the last year of his deal, as well? Are they going to try and add a DT that has positional flexibility to contribute at either spot? Or, do they expect to go with the smallest LB group in the NFL with Matt Milano at WLB and  Terrel Bernard at MLB? That could lead the Bills to want to bulk up at DT.

But as fans, we lack real information from the people that matter.

Accepting differences of opinion

Aaron Quinn of Cover1 recently tweeted out that the Bills like Gabe Davis more than fans do. I replied that the Bills like Spencer Brown more than the fans do. I have argued with people about drafting a TE early and using more 12 personnel. I have also argued with people about whether drafting a RB like Bijan Robinson would be a good idea.

At the end of the day, there will be differences of opinion between fans, media, and the Bills themselves. 

For instance, I was not thrilled with the Terrel Bernard pick last year. But, I did like the Elam, Cook, and Shakir picks. And I am sure that Beane was pretty happy with everyone they picked when the draft concluded. 

To limit my disappointment at the end of the weekend, I will try and be accepting that there will be differences of opinion.

Be open to a variety of scenarios

With the Bills having six picks and none before the 27th selection tonight, it is a good idea to be open to a variety of scenarios.

If you get locked into something like "Jack Campbell or bust!!!!!" and some team surprises everyone and takes Jack Campbell in the top 15, you are going to have major disappointment. If you want the Bills to trade for DeAndre Hopkins and he gets dealt to the Ravens or Giants or Patriots, you are going to be crushed.

To avoid that, I would suggest that being open to a variety of options is the best way to go. I believe there are a variety of ways that this draft could go that would be really good for the Bills.

Obviously if a player like Jaxon Smith-Njigba falls and Beane is able to land him either by moving up or staying at 27, that will be a great start to the draft and Bills Mafia will be jacked up.

Taking a guy to fill the hole at MLB will be more polarizing. As will almost every single guy that the Bills are likely to take at 27. 

I think I would be open to more scenarios than most. I would love a short to intermediate 7-11 (always open) WR at 27. I would like a TE like Michael Mayer, Dalton Kinkaid, or Darnell Washington at 27. I would be cautiously optimistic about a Bijan Robinson pick at 27 were he to fall. I would get excited about a Darnell Wright pick to potentially improve at RT. I wouldn't mind a DT like Mazi Smith or Keanu Benton. 

And I would love a trade back involving Arizona where the Bills landed DeAndre Hopkins for moving back and out of the first round.

Analyzing > Hypothesizing 

And the final thing that I have settled on is that analyzing the moves that the Bills will actually make is way better than hypothesizing what they could possibly do.

I have been a mock draft simulator junkie for a while. It is fun for me to play virtual GM and do a variety of things. And as a member of #TeamTradeBack, I love mock draft simulators that allow me to trade back a lot and add a lot of picks. As anyone who likes playing around with mock draft simulators knows, more picks equal more fun.

But, with all of that hypothesizing comes expectations. And as Bruce Nolan loves to say Disappointment = Expectations - Reality. But since I do not like to be disappointed, I need to try and hypothesize a little less and be patient. This weekend will be over soon and we can then move on to analyzing the moves that Brandon Beane and company made. 

And hopefully those moves will lead to hypothesizing about Super Bowl parade routes from Buffalo to Orchard Park this winter.