We live in a time where people are labelled and choose labels all the time. The NFL is no different. And some of the conversations about the Bills draft class is being driven by labels and how people feel about them.
When it comes to first round pick Dalton Kincaid, there are a variety of labels being thrown around. And some of those labels are driven by preconceived notions about what fans and media believe the Bills need to take the next step in the AFC. Some are using the TE label to frame the conversation about the Kincaid pick in a negative light, especially with the presence of Dawson Knox on the roster. People that are excited about the pick might use the label "big slot" or "offensive weapon" when talking about Kincaid.
Personally, I watched the highlights of his performance against USC last season where he was targeted 16 times, made 16 catches, and had 234 receiving yards with a TD. In that video, you see Kincaid getting open from the slot, catching everything, and getting first down after first down, even when he caught the ball short of the sticks and had to make a play to get a first down. I do not expect Kincaid to step in as a rookie and look like a younger Travis Kelce. But, I am excited about the chance he has to team with Knox as a TE duo that will give the Bills options like New England had with Gronkowski and Hernandez and the Panthers had in Cam Newton's rookie year with Olsen and Shockey.
Another label that gets thrown around is "good value". This label came into play with the Bills second pick in Florida OG O'Cyrus Torrence. The Bills likely had an early to mid 2nd round grade on Torrence. The challenge for me is that value only matters if the player is a fit with what you do as a football team. Torrence adds depth at guard, that is for certain. The challenge is that he is not as nimble and athletic as the Bills like to have along the OL. So we will have to see how the three-way OG battle works out between now and week 1. Most people believe that it will be Torrence versus Ryan Bates for the starting RG spot. But, I could see things play out such that Bates and Torrence prove to be their two best guards and Connor McGovern is the guy that is on the sideline to start week one.
After we get past the labels that are thrown around, we get the post-draft clickbait content of grades. Every website feels the need to put out draft grade and winners and losers articles as quickly as possible after each day of the draft. The challenge is that it is way too soon to know who is a winner and who is a loser. We don't know if Dorian Williams is just a Matt Milano backup and special teams player or if he can surprise everyone and be a reasonable MLB for the Bills as a rookie. We don't know if Dalton Kincaid can step in and get 90+ targets as a rookie and be the easy button for Ken Dorsey, Josh Allen, and the Bills offense. We don't know if their day three guys earn roster spots or if they get plucked off of the Bills practice squad.
All we know is that the Bills entered the draft with six picks, they were able to select six players, and they were able to add a pair of 2024 6th round picks. Having 9 picks, with a 10th in the 3rd round compensatory pick for losing Edmunds likely coming when the league assigns comp picks, in next year's draft gives Beane a few different options. The first is that it will give Beane ammo to be able to trade up in the first round in 2024. Beane has traded up in the first round to make 4 of his 6 first round selections (Allen, Edmunds, Elam, and Kincaid). The second will be if Beane wants to trade day 3 picks for immediate help at the trade deadline like he did getting Hines and Marlowe last season.
I would be surprised if Beane took 10 players in the draft next year. But, he will always need to add young, cost controlled players as he navigates the cap crunch years as the Bills remain in their contender window.
The 2028 reflection on the Bills 2023 draft class will depend on what the coaches and players are able to do together. If Dalton Kincaid turns into an elite TE and the Bills pick up his 5th year option, then his grade will be a solid one. If Torrence is a starter at guard and gets signed to a second contract, his grade will be a good one. If Williams turns into a starting LB, that pick will get an A+. If Justin Shorter turns into a Jake Kumerow or Trent Sherfield type STs contributor and depth WR on offense, that will be a solid B. If Shorter surprises people and turns into a big deep threat WR that catches everything, it will be an A+. You hope that Nick Broeker turns into the next Ike Boettger, that is a solid B. And if Alex Austin is the next day 3/UDFA CB that Sean McDermott and company turn into a serviceable NFL CB, that is a solid B.
But like almost everything in life, there are no guarantees. Kincaid and/or Torrence could be busts in the NFL. Broeker could get cut or turn into a 10 year NFL starter. That is why pro sports are fun. You never know how things will turn out on any given Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday.
