The shows do not have to go on

 

Last night was supposed to be one of the best Monday Night Football matchups in recent memory. Then on a seemingly normal play, everything changed when Damar Hamlin stumbled to the turf.

Now the questions are about what will happen next. The idea that the show must go on is a false one. The world will not stop if the Bills and Bengals are given time to heal from the trauma that they experienced last night.

It would be unprecedented to have the game be a no contest. It would be unprecedented for the Buffalo Bills to not play again this season.

But as Damar Hamlin lies in a Cincinnati hospital in critical condition from an injury suffered in front of all of his teammates and brothers, we are living through an unprecedented situation.

Having a human response and saying that the show cannot go on is what would be best from so many of the people that have been emotionally affected by what occurred last night. 

Actions speak louder than words. It is time for people to prove through their actions that games played to entertain people are not more important than true matters of life and death. 

Cottage season marshmallows

We are in the part of the NHL off season where a lot of the decision makers are taking time off at their vacation homes in cottage country. So, now that the vast majority of off season moves have been made by the Sabres, it is a good time to throw some random thoughts about where the roster stands today and what we can look forward to in the 2022-23 season for the Sabres.

• I am more optimistic about the Sabres goalie situation today than I was when they announced the re-signing of Craig Anderson. Leading into free agency, the news was that Jack Campbell was signing a 5 year deal in Edmonton and Darcy Kuemper was signing a 5 year deal in Washington. So, with the two biggest names in goal off the market, Eric Comrie was the one guy left that I was hoping the Sabres could get. Shortly after signing, Comrie went on a media tour including the InGoal Radio podcast and Sabres Live with Duffer & Marty Biron. Comrie comes across as a "good vibes" guy and a cerebral goalie that is looking forward to getting a shot to be the #1 in the NHL. Having turned pro with the Winnipeg Jets one year after Connor Hellebuyck. That unfortunate timing has led to Comrie never really getting a shot. It is not a lock that Comrie will be the short term answer in goal, but I like the roll of the dice given the two year deal that he got. 
• The battle for roster spots on the wings will be really interesting with Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka looking ready for NHL duty and the Sabres re-signing Vinnie Hinostroza and not trading away any wingers in a quantity for quality trade means that a veteran winger like Hinostroza or Girgensons will be a healthy scratch with Anders Bjork if everyone is healthy and Quinn and Peterka are in the lineup.
• The center position will be really interesting to watch. Tage Thompson might be the only guy that you can write in pen into a center spot. Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Peyton Krebs, Zemgus Girgensons, and Rasmus Asplund are all guys that could be centers or wingers, depending on what Don Granato wants to do. If they go with Thompson, Cozens, and Mittelstadt at center, the last center spot will be really interesting to watch. Is it Girgensons? Or, do they go without a traditional 4th line center and play Krebs at center? Another option could be to give Cozens the defensive/energy type role given that he did play well last season matching up with McDavid and Matthews.
• Who steps up as the other top four defenseman will be interesting. Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Mattias Samuelsson are expected to be three of the top four D on the Sabres this season. Whether it is Henri Jokiharju or free agent signing Ilya Lyubushkin who is in the top four as Power's partner will be interesting to watch. I expect that Jokiharju gets the first shot in that role. But, I could also see a scenario where Lyubushkin is that guy given that he has more experience and would be more defensively minded.
• Kevyn Adams is being more patient than a lot of Sabres fans are. The latest Instigators podcast had the guys from the Expected Buffalo podcast on to talk about when will Adams shift gears and be more proactive in building a roster to compete for the playoffs. It was a very interesting conversation. I think a lot of the fans that are accepting of the patient approach this off season are expecting that Adams is more proactive next summer. But, with the first of back-to-back off seasons with major RFAs to re-sign, I would not expect it, either. Next summer, the Sabres have Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Asplund, and Mattias Samuelsson hitting RFA. The summer of 2024 will see Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Henri Jokiharju, Jacob Bryson, Casey Mittelstadt, and Peyton Krebs hitting RFA and Eric Comrie hitting UFA. So, I could see Adams waiting until the summer of 2024 to make major moves unless he is able to get guys like Dahlin and Power locked up long term a year early.
• I know lots of fans looked at what Ottawa and Detroit did this off season and they are jealous. I get it. There was a part of me that wanted Adams to do more. And I would still like him to sign Johan Larsson to fill that 4th line center role. But, I do think that the patient approach that Adams has taken so far is the right one for the Sabres right now. While a lot of Sabres fans would eat the marshmallow in the marshmallow test, I am betting that Kevyn Adams would wait.

Some random Sabres thoughts after the draft and before Free Agency starts

 

A bunch of random thoughts after the NHL Draft and with Free Agency starting in a few days:

- With three first round picks, you expect that the knee jerk draft grades are going to be good for the Sabres. And they were. 

- I think I was the most excited about Jiri Kulich falling to the Sabres at 28 when looking at the three first round picks.

- I liked the three first round picks overall. The Sabres added a lot of skill and offensive upside. 

- The few nit picks I have with this draft class are the concerns about Savoie's concussion/injury history, I wasn't thrilled with them taking Leinonen where they did, and I think they could have used 1 or 2 more defensemen in this class.

- I really love how open and honest Jerry Forton is during his post-draft media availability. Him getting choked up when asked about Kevyn Adams as the leader of the front office was heartwarming, as well. 

- It really is too bad that Matt Murray wouldn't waive his No Trade Clause to come to Buffalo. Moving up from 16 to 7 in the first round would have been fun. And he would at least give the Sabres an NHL goalie for the next two years, even if he is vastly overpaid.

- Some people were surprised that the Sabres kept all 11 of their picks. But, given the influence of the analytics department, that didn't shock me. 

- I also don't get why people think that the Leinonen pick meant anything to UPL, Portillo, or Levi. Goalies usually take around 4 to 5 seasons post-draft to make it to the NHL. This is a long development play pick and shouldn't affect things in Rochester or Buffalo for a number of seasons. And given that this is the first goalie selected since Adams became GM, you could argue that a goalie pick was overdue.

- It is way too soon to grade the picks. Given how things have gone since Adams coming on board, I am tempering my reaction to some of the picks that I have not excited about. But, I really only had a thumbs down reaction to taking Leinonen in the 2nd round with a lot of good defensemen still on the board. But, I understand the Sabres thought process as Forton expressed in the media availability. They had Leinonen as the best goalie in the class by a wide margin and they had a first round grade on him. It sounded like they could have taken him at 28 if Kulich hadn't fallen to that pick. Personally, I am worried that they drafted a guy that is big in a time when skating, athleticism, and reading the game are becoming more and more important. But, goalies are extremely hard to scout. So, I just have to hope that he does work out in the long run. 

- Biro and Bryson getting re-signed to two year deals was a nice bit of work. And the Sabres gave their four remaining RFAs their qualifying offers, as expected.

- It will be really interesting to see what the Sabres do to fill out the two or three holes they have in their goalie depth chart. Re-signing UPL is a foregone conclusion. Malcolm Subban has been hanging out with Sabres teammates ever since the trade and through this past weekend. It seems inevitable that they re-sign him as a depth guy that will spend most of the season in Rochester. And nobody will be surprised if Houser re-signs to be the ECHL/AHL guy. The huge question is who can they add to the top of the goalie depth chart. It seems like a lot of people are guessing that Eric Comrie might be the guy they go after in FA and guys like James Reimer or Adin Hill might be on their radar if they go the trade route. I just hope that they don't give up a 2nd round pick for a guy who is a UFA next summer.

- Another thing to watch is what will they do on defense, especially RHD, this off season. PK Subban is a name that has been thrown around a lot. Especially given how well his brother has fit into the Sabres locker room since being acquired last season. Jan Rutta would bring serious playoff experience if they go in another direction.

- Kevyn Adams talked about being patient after day 2 of the draft. I am going to expect that the Sabres won't be as aggressive as a sizable segment of the fanbase and local media will want. But given where this team is in regards to their building process, that is fine with me. Patience is a virtue.

- I will likely get tired of the "Process" talk before too long. It's easy to talk about trusting a process that has resulted in way more results than the Sabres have had over the past decade. I am more hopeful about this front office than the two prior administrations. But, if this team isn't a playoff contender in 2023-24, patience will start to wear thin.

Some random Sabres thoughts ahead of the NHL Draft

 

The 2022 NHL Draft is one of the most wide open drafts in recent memory for a variety of reasons. The biggest factor is the ongoing impact on the development of players due to the COVID pandemic. The OHL taking the entire 2020-21 season off negatively impacted the development of all the OHL prospects, most notably Shane Wright. The other major issue affecting this draft is the uncertainty of what is going on in Russia and how that could affect the long term availability of Russian prospects that are not already playing in North America. The news of Flyers prospect goalie Ivan Fedotov being arrested for evading mandatory military service after signing with the Flyers and wanting to move to North America for the 2022-23 season will likely cause more than a few NHL teams to avoid drafting Russian players in the 2022 Draft.

How I Look At Players

Most people that look at prospects and drafting have some guidelines they like to use when valuing players and deciding who to take. For me, I like players that are hard to play against, have solid intangibles, and contribute to a relatively balanced prospect pipeline.

Hard to play against

When a lot of people think about players that are hard to play against, they simply think of players with a physical edge to their game, like Tom Wilson. For me, there are multiple ways that a player can be hard to play against. The easiest example is a player like Connor McDavid. McDavid is not the most physical player in NHL history. But, he is the hardest player to play against today because of his speed across the board from the way he processes the game, his skating ability, and his hands that allow him to make high level plays at high rates of speed.

You can also think about individual skills that contribute to a player being hard to play against like Victor Olofsson's shot. 

Solid intangibles

The "vibes" surrounding the Sabres and Kevyn Adams focusing on things like grit, mental toughness, and work ethic lead me to believe that the Sabres value intangibles as much, or maybe more, as I do. The big reason that intangibles are important to me is the fact that being an impactful NHL player is as much, or more, about things like work ethic than pure skill. Yes, there needs to be a requisite level of skill for a player to be an NHLer. But, the desire to be their best and to be willing to sacrifice to be the best player they can be is a defining attribute of the elite in the game.

If a player has talent and not the right intangibles, I would rather that another team rolls the dice on that player.

Balanced pipeline 

Some people are of the opinion that you always take the Best Player Available and worry about balancing out a roster down the line. I understand why some people have that attitude, but I do believe that you need to balance things out to some extent and not leave yourself completely bereft of prospects in a single area.

My approach to the 2022 Draft if I were the Sabres GM

- I would make four picks in the top 41. The Sabres currently hold picks 9, 16, 28, and 41 in the first two rounds of the 2022 Draft. I would make 4 picks in the top 41 given the depth of talent in this draft. Basically, this is saying that I would not use the 41st overall pick to trade up in the first round just to get a guy that is falling. With 11 overall picks in the draft, I would be open to moving a later pick or two in order to move up to get a guy like the Sabres did to get Peterka in 2020.

- The Sabres need to take a goalie somewhere in the 2022 Draft. Talking about balancing the pipeline, the Sabres are really thin when it comes to goalie prospects. They will get even thinner if Erik Portillo does walk as a UFA next summer. So, Kevyn Adams should take his first goalie ever as a Sabres GM.

- I would roll the dice on one "risky" pick in the first round. I would prefer that they wait until the 28th pick to do so, but I would put guys like Lane Hutson, Jagger Firkus, or Brad Lambert in the "roll of the dice" bucket at 28.

- Trust your board and be open to moving up or down. There is a reason that the Sabres have scouts and they put in work all year long. 

Guys I Like At...

9th Overall

- If one of the top five prospects fall to 9th overall, don't even think about it. If Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Nemec, or Jiricek are there at 9, it should be a no brainer.

- Best Center Available - Kasper, Savoie, or Nazar are the three most likely center prospects that might be there at 9. Cutter Gauthier is a guy that has played a lot of wing and may play center in college that could be in the mix at 9, as well.

- I would not be mad at a pick like Kemell or Lekkerimaki at 9. But, I feel like the Sabres have plenty of high end wing prospects and could use help up the middle or at RHD way more.

- I also would not be mad if the Sabres were to take the best LHD possible as they may be able to take the best LHD prospect in this draft at 9.

16th Overall

- Obviously if one of the guys that I liked at 9 were still there at 16, you take them. This draft is so wide open that I think there is a good chance that the Sabres really like two guys at 9 and the one that they don't take is still there at 16.

- Best NTDP forward possible - I like a lot of the guys in this year's US National Team Development Program class of prospects. I would be OK with any of the likely first round guys from the NTDP at 16.

- Djurgarden is another program with multiple guys slated to go in the first round. I would not be upset if the Sabres were to take one of the Djurgarden forwards at 16.

- You could also see the Sabres go with either a LHD or a RHD in this spot. If they take a guy in the mid-first round, I would hope that he is a guy who has a high hockey IQ.

28th Overall

- This is where the gambling season should take place. Whether that is a guy like Lane Hutson or Jagger Firkus who have the  major knock is that they are undersized, one of the top Russians in the draft, or maybe the most polarizing player in the draft in Brad Lambert.

- If they went forward-forward at 9 & 16, I would go Best D Possible in this spot.

Random thoughts

- I will be unhappy if they take Brad Lambert and Connor Geekie with their top two picks. While Lambert has an enticing speed+skill package, there are questions about both his hockey IQ and his intangibles. Those are two things that I really value and it would make it hard for me to get excited if the Sabres took Lambert before the 28th pick. And the issue I have in Connor Geekie is that he seems like a guy with a power forward body who plays a bit of a small guy perimeter game and is not as hard to play against as he could, or should, be.

- It will be really intriguing to see if the Sabres are a team that is willing to take Russians in this draft. The Sabres took five Russians in the 2021 Draft after not taking a Russian-based player of note in a really long time. There is talk that 10+ teams are unwilling to draft Russians in this class. With 11 picks, the Sabres might be able to get some real value if they are one of the teams that take Russian players.

- Another area where the Sabres could get some value is in the sub-6'2" goalie department. There are some teams that will not scout goalie prospects that are not at least 6'2" tall. But, with the Sabres trading for sub-6'2" Devon Levi last year, that might not be a barrier to the Sabres taking a goalie. Going off of Central Scouting's list, you have Hugo Havelid, Dylan Silverstein, and plenty of others that fail to crack that 6'2" mark. Havelid had a strong U18 championship backstopping Team Sweden. He could be a nice mid-round goalie pick for the Sabres.

- How will analytics impact the Sabres approach to the draft? Whether it is Will Scouch's rankings or these rankings from Byron Bader at HockeyProsecting.com, there are plenty of people looking analytically in new and unique ways. With the Sabres expanded analytics department, I wonder how that impacts their approach to the draft.

Bottom Line:

The draft should be fun. Even if the Sabres don't take all the guys I want where they pick, I do hope that they turn into quality NHLers and help contribute to the Sabres getting back into the playoffs soon.

What Kevyn Adams looks for in a future Sabre

 

In the opening of the Sabres: Embedded 2020 video about the NHL Draft where the Buffalo Sabres drafted Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka, there was a definition shown of the Sabres philosophy and a definition of "What Is A Sabre." As we head into a very important off season for GM Kevyn Adams and the Buffalo Sabres, I think it is a good time to take a look at this definition, the types of players that Adams has targeted as GM, and help form a better idea of what Adams could do both at the draft and in the prime roster forming season through the first two weeks of the new league year.

The way I read this definition, it looks like it was, "A Buffalo Sabre is an athlete that is intentional with his habits on and off the ice, driven to grow and improve on whatever challenges and adversity are presented. Through grit and mental toughness, a Buffalo Sabre will be unselfish, resilient and compete to get better everyday, with the goal of winning a Stanley Cup Championship."

Over two drafts, here are the picks that Kevyn Adams and his team have drafted:

Of those 15 picks, they have selected 9 players that are listed as either LW or RW, 4 centers, 2 LHD, 1 RHD, and no goalies. They have also picks 6 Canadians, 4 Russians, 3 Swedes, 1 Finn, 1 German, and 1 Czech. With this year's first round having a lot of US National Team Development players in it, we may see a change in direction from the Sabres when it comes to not drafting Americans.

Although, there are plenty of Canadian, Swedish, and Russians that will be in the mix at all three of their draft slots.

Some of the challenges with taking this information and trying to predict what the Sabres will look for both at the draft and in trades and free agency is that a lot of the traits of the prototypical Buffalo Sabre are not things that you can really see watching video of games or even read about in all the articles that will be out there.

We have seen that the Sabres put a priority this past year on guys that fit in the locker room and are good teammates. And having a growth mindset and a strong off ice work ethic are traits that are not as easy for fans to identify as being a fast skater or having a hard shot.

Some draft trends that I expect to change will be a move to add centers, RHD, and hopefully adding a goalie. With reports that Kevyn Adams was following a group of the top US National Team Development players during the workout portion of the NHL Draft Scouting Combine, I would be mildly surprised if Adams does not take the first American during his time as GM.

And when it comes to building out the NHL roster, I do expect that we will see a focus on character more than pure hockey talent. There are rumors that the Sabres do have a desire to sign Jack Campbell and PK Subban as free agents. Both Campbell and Subban are known to be good teammates. So, along with addressing needs in goal and at RHD on the NHL roster, one would expect that they would add to the already strong culture of vibes that we saw from the Sabres this past season.

While plenty of fans will be focused on adding hockey talent through the draft, trades, and free agency, we can see that there are other factors that Adams takes into consideration before making a player a Buffalo Sabre.

Dear Lacrosse, ________ .

Dear Lacrosse,

Thank you.

Four years ago, Nate was the only kid that was willing to hop in the cage for his Gates Chili Modified Boys Lacrosse team. Little did we know where things would go from there. As I sit here typing out this letter after his Senior Varsity Lacrosse season at Gates Chili has come to an end, I have nothing but gratitude to the game and feel so lucky about all the coaches, teammates, officials, and parents that we have interacted with over the last four years. I also feel so blessed that Nate will have great coaches and teammates to help him on his college journey at Morrisville State College.

Lacrosse is known as a white, upper class sport. But, I am thankful for the diversity of teammates that Nate has had throughout his time at Gates Chili. The eight seniors on the Spartans lacrosse team this year represent that diversity well. There are four white players, including Nate, in the Spartans lacrosse class of 2022. But, there is also a player who is Vietnamese, a player that is Turkish, a player with Native American ancestry, and a player who is half African-American and half European-Canadian. 

The starting defensive unit of three longpoles and the goalie had a similar mix. This time it was two white players, the half African-American and half European-Canadian, and a Latino player.

There is also diversity in ways that don't show up in pictures or on questionnaires about diversity. One family on senior night required an American Sign Language interpreter, for instance. And another senior has two LGBTQIA+ siblings.

I also know that Nate's future team will have diversity, as well. While checking the roster for other Rochester area players, it was awesome to see that the two Section V players on this year's roster were African-American. 

I am thankful that lacrosse provided a way to show Mrs. Swiech that Nate and Ty are doing great. She was the reading resource teacher at their elementary school. With Nate and Ty getting ready to graduate and play lacrosse in college starting in the fall, I tried to let her know how they were doing. She was able to make it to one of their games and get a picture with them after the game. It was great to give her that memory.

I am thankful that Nate has an idol like Blaze Riorden. I am extremely thankful that Nate was able to work with Blaze for three days after the PLL stop in Albany last year with Joe Walter's Dream Big camp here in Rochester. I am sure that helped contribute to Nate's great performance in goal during his senior season.

I am thankful that we could get back to this before games this season. After not allowing this pre-game tradition due to COVID in 2020, Nate enjoyed this pre-game ritual. I enjoyed watching Nate slap five with the other goalie and then sprint to his cage and go through his little routine that was likely partially inspired by Blaze's pre-game routine.

I am thankful for Nate's favorite season yet. And I am thankful for the memories that I am sure will come in the future.

A thank you card from a ref to a lacrosse team

 Here is the handwritten Thank You note that my son received after his varsity lacrosse game tonight. It was too good not to share:

5/12/22

Dear men,

I am requesting that your goalie read this to you all, with my deep appreciation and thankfulness for your time and attention.

Just over 50 years ago, I too was chasing after loose balls, fast attackmen, and attempting to pass the ball to "someone who could do something with it," in practices and Monroe County games. It was and still is a fast and exciting game no matter the changes in rules, technology of the equipment and coaching acumen. 

Your goalie, greets us, officials, after being scored upon with the phrase, "Thank you for being an official." It is very generous and unselfish of him and as a leader of your team reflects well upon all of you!

I wish to thank all of you for your efforts, sportsmanship, love for teammate and team and love and honor of "the game."

Lacrosse and spring are always special times to me... New life, unlimited potential and possibilities, the crisp cold weather giving way to warm sunny days and cool pleasant nights, the exhilaration of the face-off, the fast break, a great outlet pass or stick check! As my strength, speed and vigor begin to leave me I smile and remain happy that the game will be in good hands with you gentlemen. Please consider reffing after your playing days come to an end.

With much gratitude,

A very old ref

God bless.